The hottest and driest weather seriously affects t

2022-08-01
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The dry weather has seriously affected the normal rubber cutting. The rising trend of natural rubber has not been fully understood.

since May, the dry weather in Hainan production area has seriously affected the normal rubber cutting. Due to the small amount of new resources in the market, the tight supply has directly driven the synchronous rise of the rubber prices in the two markets. In addition, the continuous rainfall in Thailand, an international production area, is not conducive to the production in the opening and cutting period. The tight supply of rubber sources soon triggered a rapid rise in the global rubber market prices. Obviously, at present, when the stress on the sample gradually increases and reaches the maximum static friction force, the gas condition is the main factor that dominates the market supply and demand. If the weather conditions in the production area are not improved recently, the contradiction between supply and demand in the rubber market will still exist, and the global rubber price will still show a strong feature

the psychological changes of investors will affect the level of commodity prices in a certain period. The market's cognition of prices can be divided into perceptual cognition and rational cognition. Every time the price trend occurs, the market can also reduce the life cycle capital. The investment psychology will experience the development process from rationality to sensibility and then to rationality. If we analyze from the perceptual point of view, we are used to defining the current price level from the historical price range of Tianjiao (Information Forum). Pessimists tend to compare with the previous low of 11000 and think that the current rubber price level of 14000 is overestimated. Optimists tend to compare with the previous high of 17000, while the standard configuration of pressure testing machine thinks that there is still room for growth in the future. From the perspective of bounded rationality, the current futures price in Shanghai is slightly higher than the spot price in Hainan by 300 points, which is far from the era of high basis in the past. Nowadays, low basis not only reduces the market arbitrage opportunities, but also suppresses the interest in speculative funds. Therefore, at present, the price of Tianjiao has risen sharply, but the total size of Tianjiao contract positions is still very small. The evolution of price trend is always accompanied by the corresponding position size. Once the future market basis is gradually expanded and the rubber price is synchronized out of the middle track region, the limited rational cognition of the market is bound to be fully revealed, and the degree of speculative interest and capital enthusiasm will be effectively improved, thus causing the transfer of market price psychology to perceptual cognition

in this round of rising market, the long strategic advantage is based on two foundations: first, entering the market when the current price is low, and the position cost is reasonable; The other is to successfully grasp the recent changes in the supply-demand relationship of rubber sources and take advantage of the climate to benefit from the anti seasonal rising market. The price increase of more than 1500 points is strong, and the short-term strategic advantage of bulls is self-evident

the short-term rubber market price change is mainly subject to three variable factors: production area climate, tire tax rate and RMB exchange rate. We analyze the long response strategies in two cases: the first is a favorable analysis. If the domestic and international production areas still have bad weather and cannot resume normal production, the tight supply of rubber sources will continue. The situation of supply exceeding demand is completely conducive to the future price rise and long-term benefits; If the reform of tire consumption tax rate is implemented, reducing the consumption tax rate of bias tire can stimulate the tire industry's demand for domestic rubber, and the expansion of market demand will also enhance the potential for price rise. Both of these aspects may become an excellent subject of speculation for future bulls to launch the market. Another unfavorable analysis is that the improvement of climate in the production area and the appreciation of RMB will bring pressure to the price rise. Even if these two factors work, the pressure on the bull market is quite limited. Because the current long profit space can absorb certain price pressure. At the same time, the high-level quotation of rubber prices in international production areas and the strong characteristics of Tokyo rubber jointly create a bull atmosphere, which will also restrict the space for domestic rubber price adjustment. In particular, for the manufacturers of our experimental machines, this is also a kind of recent narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international rubber prices, which also eases the price pressure caused by currency appreciation to a great extent. It can be seen that the Bulls still have sufficient strategic advantages under adverse circumstances. Therefore, no matter how the three variable factors that affect the future market change, the bulls have achieved the initiative and strategic advantages that affect the market

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